According to the forecast made by the chairman of the Housing Observatory on the basis of data from the Ministry, supplemented by data from the Observatory, housing prices will rise by exactly 10.9% in 2023. This figure is obtained by adding 2.9% for the first quarter of 2023, 2.8% for the second quarter, 2.7% for the third quarter and 2.5% for the fourth quarter. «The price of housing continued to rise, following the trend shown in previous quarters, which suggests that this trend is difficult to break immediately, the correlation is not straight from point to point, so it will take several quarters with an increase in supply for the price to change the slope of its curve», the report says.
According to its director Fernando Cos-Gaillon: «Prices for new housing in Valencia will continue to rise in 2023. There will be no decline, much less a sharp one». In 2022, the price of new housing increased by 26%, and in 2023 all forecasts indicate that it will continue to grow. The forecast shows that prices will increase by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023, and by 2.8% in the second quarter.
The price increase is caused by a large disparity between the supply and demand of housing, caused by a shortage of new facilities due to the limited amount of land in the city, as well as the rising cost of raw materials, etc.
Another clear example of market tension and, as a result, price growth can be found in comparison between the fourth quarter of 2019 and the same quarter of 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the price increased by more than 50% compared to the same quarter just 2 years ago.
The new report of the department provides convincing data refuting the alarming headlines about the crisis in the real estate sector, which do not correspond to forecasts for the coming year. «Last year was exceptional, housing prices increased by 26%. In 2023, they will continue to grow, of course, not in such quantities, but the growth will continue. Let's not catch up with the situation, because the sector is in good condition», Kos-Gayon said.
The document also analyzes the offer of rental housing, the average price of which is at a record high of 1,200 euros per month, which is significantly higher than the average mortgage payment in the city.
Faced with this escalation of prices for rent and purchase of housing, the Chairman insists that public authorities urgently need to solve the problem of the extreme situation in which access to housing in the Valencian real estate market turned out to be.
Fernando Cos-Gaillon notes that «there is a need for a policy that guarantees accessibility, through direct assistance, guarantees for initial purchase and unfunded amounts, effective and sustainable cooperation between the public and private sectors, which makes viable the development of promotions aimed at these typologies, and effective management in the development of urban planning». Without these actions, we risk getting into an emergency situation with housing for a significant part of the population, who will no longer be able not only to buy a house, but even to rent a full-fledged house, forced to share it with several families.