The consequences that the pandemic had on the Spanish property market during 2020 and the first half of 2021 are well known to everyone, experts and non-specialists alike. Countless articles have been written about famous rebus sic stantibus clause, renegotiation of commercial leases, exponential growth in demand for logistics assets, job optimization through teleworking and smart work, and great opportunity to acquire distressed hotel assets.
It can be assumed that discussions about the applicability of the “rebus sic stantibus” provision or the addiction to teleworking will be temporary if a de facto stable normal situation is achieved in the short / medium term.
What will definitely not be accidental is the process of market digitalization and activities in the real estate industry. The pandemic served as a catalyst for an innovation trend that had already begun and led to the fact that in one year such development milestones were achieved that, if a pandemic had not occurred, would not have been achieved in five years.
Restricting freedom has led to exponential growth in e-commerce, significantly changing people's consumer habits in retail sector. E-commerce growth is estimated to be around 20% in 2020 and will increase by around 24% in 2021. Regardless, we believe there is room for growth as the share of e-commerce in total retail sales is still very small.
On the other hand, this growth has led to decrease in number of shopping centers in the so-called prime and first-tier categories, while shopping centers in the lower categories (second and third tier) will be forced to reposition or close. This is already happening in the US, where we find abandoned shopping malls from the 70s and 80s, such as Randall Park Mall or Euclid Mall, both in Ohio, or Gwinnett Place Mall in Georgia.
The expansion of e-commerce has led to an inevitable growth in the logistics sector, with the proliferation of last mile logistics, high-tech warehouses and the need to replace obsolete warehouses. A new trading model with very short delivery times has made warehouses built before 2016 obsolete.