According to the report of the Institute for Real Estate Analysis (Instai) of Euroval, the growth of housing prices in the province of Toledo in the next three years should be the highest in Spain.
The same report identifies several other contenders for significant price increases: Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca and Guadalajara. This is reported by Efe news agency.
Most real estate appraisers, real estate agencies and consultants believe that housing prices will remain generally stable, but with a slight upward trend, at least until 2023.
However, the forecast for the provinces is uneven, there is data that suggests that in the next three years houses may become cheaper in provinces such as Barcelona, Palencia and Soria.
Different sources give different estimates of the average growth in the value of real estate. Forecasts for the current year vary: from 3 to 7%.
In this regard, the Euroval forecast stands out. According to the company, in the next three years, residential real estate prices will increase, in total, by 1.8%:
- by 0.9% in 2022;
- by 0.6% in 2023;
- by 0.3% in 2024.
At the same time, the report «Three-year forecast: The cost of real estate in the provinces», compiled by Euroval and Instai, to which Efe has gained access, indicates that there are no provinces that correspond to the specified average.
In the report, provinces are divided into three groups depending on whether the price will fluctuate upward, downward or remain stable (about 3%).
So, in 29 provinces prices will rise, in 4 they will decrease, and in 17 they will stabilize. But the study notes that the timely increase in the supply of new housing in these provinces (more expensive than the real estate of the secondary market), can give the markets indicators higher than predicted.
Huge price increase in the province of Toledo
The province of Toledo in the next three years will show the highest growth in prices for residential real estate in Spain — 16.5%. This highlights the upward trend that has been gradually forming since 2018. Toledo is followed by Albacete with a forecast of 12.2% and Urense with an increase of 10.9%.
Other provinces promising strong price growth until 2024:
- Ciudad Real (9.6%);
- La Rioja (9.2%);
- Malaga (8.5%);
- Jaen (8.4%);
- Almeria (8.3%).
The growth from 5 to 7% is expected in the provinces: Cadiz (7.6%), Castellon (7.3%), Pontevedra (7.3%), Girona (6.9%), Tarragona (6.3%), Caceres (6.2%), Lleida (5.9%).
Less than 5% growth should show: Balearic Islands (5.8%), Cuenca (5.4%), Murcia (5.4%), Granada (5.3%), Burgos (4.9%), Madrid (4.7%), Cordoba (4.4%), Zaragoza (4.4%), Valencia (4%), Avila (3.9%), Cantabria (3.9%), Badajoz (3.8%), Teruel (3.8%) and Asturias (3.3%).
Prices will decrease especially strongly in Barcelona (-8.4%), Palencia (-7.6%), Seria (-3.8%) and Segovia (-3.2%).