Real estate analyst and consultant Gonzalo Bernardos is a professor of Economics at the University of Barcelona (UB) and directs a master's degree in Real Estate Consultancy, Management and Promotion at this educational institution. ldealista / news interviewed him to find out how he predicts the coming months for the Spanish real estate business after the pandemic, what he thinks about the growth of squatting and which, in his opinion, will be the main cities for housing investment in the coming months.
As the end of the pandemic is getting closer, and vaccination is taking place at an amazing speed, the real estate sector is starting to catch its breath. What will this year be like?
The real estate crisis is over. And this suggests that it was a very "light" crisis, since in 2020 transactions fell by only 14.5%, and for two months there was practically no opportunity to sell, which is an impressive figure. Prices have declined somewhat, but this is predictable when an economic downturn occurs. Therefore, we can assume that the real estate crisis is over and accept the upcoming boom in real estate. In 2021, we will see a large increase in the number of transactions, and in 2022, sales growth will continue, and prices will grow, and the growth may exceed 5% and reach almost 10%, depending on how the economy works and acts.
Residential real estate, offices, commercial premises, hotels, logistics... Which real estate business will take the longest to get back on its feet?
Offices are experiencing a structural crisis, as companies will require flexibility. And this is what coworking gives, and not traditional offices. It is almost impossible for prices in offices to soar, given the number of unoccupied square meters. It is also impossible for the prices of commercial premises to soar.
International investment has stopped all over the world, but how is the real estate sector developing in other countries?
The patterns are quite similar. It all depends on the availability of mortgage lending in the country. In the United States, real estate is already experiencing a boom, because the US administration has spent a lot of money to put businesses on their feet and make sure that families suffer as little as possible from the pandemic. In the UK, for example, the shock was twofold: a pandemic and an exit from the European Union. In London, the oversupply is simply enormous. In the rest of Europe, we see conditions very similar to those in Spain: high economic growth, very low interest rates and no alternative fixed income for investors. This makes the real estate market grow rapidly.